Slot Machine Probability & Chasing The Mirage‏ 2017-11-11T12:38:26+00:00

If you’re off by just a little bit when you’re shooting for the moon, you’ll be off for 1000’s of miles.

When you’re 15 you think everything will be great, but 20 years later, did everything turned out exactly like that in the 4 pillars?

Maybe the philosophy is wrong, maybe we had false convictions, we felt something strongly, followed it blindly, but it was not correct.

English soldier had the chance to kill Hitler in WW 1, but couldn’t pull the trigger, because he had arms up, so Hitler thought he was sent by God to do his work, he was deranged, he took that as evidence, that something larger than him wanted him alive to fulfill the purpose.

As much as we like to point the finger to other people and the way they’re wrong, but look at yourself, throw away some of your convictions like Warren says.

We all learn from wars, if we’re great is because we’re standing on shoulders of giants.

Most of us are chasing Mirages (imaginary place, you think there’s water in the desert, but there’s none.) We need to know things, but in the past, everybody was certain something is true; it’s OK to have slaves, certain the Earth is flat.

We might not have these false convictions, but if we’re not careful, 100 years from now people will look at us and say that we were sure about something that was not true.

“Try live for a week with fewer convictions, and more investigation, the world needs fewer opinions and more observation.”

Instead of being sure of things (wanting to date somebody, follow that diet, quit the job and start a business…), first understand that it’s not black and white, you’ll not figure it out exactly.

You’re never going to know it exactly, have the ability to create two opposite universes; one keeping your job and the other one opening the business since that’s not possible because we’re not big enough it leaves us with the uncertainty that you need to accept.

There are two slot machines that represent two choices if the left one takes 10 pulls to win, and the second one takes 20 pulls to win (random), which one will you choose? The first one of course. But sometimes in life, you have to make a choice, but sometimes in life, you win on the first try with the second slot, while the left one doesn’t win; you did the wrong thing and you won, make sure you don’t get confused in that. People do that in politics, diet….everything; they point out the right slot and say: “see, that one won.” but they’re incorrect, so even when you’re losing it’s still better to stay on the left slot machine.

There’s nothing certain, but figure out which diet or which girl, which business is the left slot, while you’re being paralyzed by black and white, wrong and right thinking. In the world of uncertainty, you’ll have a hard time bringing certainty into all things.

This is called Epistemology; how do we know that we know something.

Without delusion, and blind spots and without saying “but it could work with this person), you have to go with the numbers. Especially in dating, people are chasing a mirage, it’s a dangerous game; “maybe she’ll change”. Slow and steady is better than trying to be cool and going for bad decisions.

See clearly the chances you have, step out of the cave (shadows are not real humans), there are times where you’ll take big risks, but not unnecessary ones.

This presupposes that you might do the right thing and still not get anything, it’s like being little kids saying “mom always rewards me when I’m doing my best”, you could put your time in, do everything, but no one acknowledges you, you don’t get anything, but know this- building skills, getting better and better will always be a good slot machine to bet on. Doing it long enough, that eventually that somebody will find out what you did, and your life will be better.

But that’s why we love getting rich quick schemes, because you could just push a button and win a lot, but you won’t! You have to give the world time to catch up, doing it over and over.

The “if” poem; stick with it!

What is your thing that you have been able to stay with past the 18-month plateau?

Knowledge, learning and implementing, building good habits…

What is an example of something you gave up too quickly on?

What is the clear path that you know you should take but have not taken and what is your resolution to get there?

What is an improbable “horse” that you have been betting on?